Market Insights https://www.tradestation.com/insights/ Fresh market commentary and actionable trade ideas. Thu, 20 Jul 2023 15:44:45 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.tradestation.com/insights/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/cropped-TradeStation_Logo_Blue_RGB-32x32.png Market Insights https://www.tradestation.com/insights/ 32 32 Options Alert: Two Giant Trades In Uber Technologies https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/07/20/options-alert-uber-technologies/ Thu, 20 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54481 Uber Technologies has been steadily trending higher, and options traders seem to think the move will continue. Two large transactions appeared in the ride-sharing stock yesterday. Both were bullish, although one involved significant risk and the other was conservative. First, the riskier trade: Volume was below open interest in the August contracts but not the […]

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Uber Technologies has been steadily trending higher, and options traders seem to think the move will continue.

Two large transactions appeared in the ride-sharing stock yesterday. Both were bullish, although one involved significant risk and the other was conservative.

First, the riskier trade:

  • 11,000 August 42.50 calls were sold for $5.60.
  • 11,000 August 35 puts were bought for $0.11.
  • 11,000 September 50 calls were bought for $2.22.
  • 11,000 September 42.50 puts were sold for $1.23.

Volume was below open interest in the August contracts but not the Septembers. That suggests a bullish combination trade was rolled from one month to the next. Here’s how it might work:

Calls fix the level where investors can purchase a security. They typically gain value when shares rise. Puts lock in the selling price, so they can appreciate to the downside. This strategy sells puts (which can be highly risky for retail investors) and uses the cash received to buy calls.

If the stock rises, the puts sold short will lose value and the calls will gain. That seems to have already happened in this case, which is why they exited a profitable position in August and moved to September. Making the adjustment let them collect a net $4.50 per share, while keeping them exposed to further upside.

Uber Technologies (UBER), daily chart, showing levels cited in this article.

Covered Call

Here’s the more conservative trade:

  • 20,612 July 32.50 calls were bought for $15.15.
  • 20,612 January 32.50 calls were sold for $16.71.

Volume was below open interest in the July contracts but above open interest in the Januarys. That suggests an investor owns roughly 2 million UBER shares and had previously sold the July 32.50s as part of covered call strategy. He or she collected a net credit of $1.56, which they’ll keep as long as the stock remains above $32.50. It can drop more than 30 percent without them enduring a loss, thanks to the covered call strategy. The investor has relinquished any further gains to the upside in return for that safety.

UBER fell 0.63 percent to $47.11 yesterday, but is up 48 percent in the last three months. It’s been rallying since earnings, revenue and guidance surprised to the upside on May 2. The next results are due before the opening bell on August 1.


Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Visit www.TradeStation.com/Pricing for full details on the costs and fees associated with options.

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Using the Platform: Sector Performance May Be Confirming New Bull Market https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/07/19/sector-performance-market-direction/ Wed, 19 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54459 The S&P 500 keeps hitting new 52-week highs, but how strong is the rally? Today’s post will use TradeStation’s award-winning platform to diagnose the health of the move. The method will use the RadarScreen tool to compare the price performance of various sectors. Are investors favoring “risk-on” stocks that are consistent with a bullish market? […]

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The S&P 500 keeps hitting new 52-week highs, but how strong is the rally? Today’s post will use TradeStation’s award-winning platform to diagnose the health of the move.

The method will use the RadarScreen tool to compare the price performance of various sectors. Are investors favoring “risk-on” stocks that are consistent with a bullish market? Answering that question can help confirm or invalidate the current move.

The workspace pictured below includes several indexes grouped into “risk on” and “risk off” categories.

The “risk on” indexes represent segments of the market that typically perform well during economic expansions or at time when investors feel confidence. They include groups like transportation, consumer discretionaries, technology and industrials.

The “risk off” indexes aren’t as sensitive to the business cycle. They include “safe havens” like utilities and consumer staples, which often outperform the broader market when sentiment is weakening. Consumer staples, in particular, tend to have higher returns before the broader drops. (See the chart below.)

RadarScreen showing 21-day performance of select indexes. Notice how “safe havens” have lagged the S&P 500 while “risk on” indexes have outperformed.

Using RadarScreen

RadarScreen is an automated tool that can track up to 1,000 symbols at a time. It works by applying one or more studies to a list of tickers in a grid. The example in this article uses “Description” and “21d.” Description is built into TradeStation, listing the name of a stock or index. 21d is a custom indicator (available in the zip below) that shows the price performance over the last 21 trading sessions. (This approximates a calendar month.)

Almost all the “risk on” indexes have risen more than the S&P 500 in the last month. Also notice how the “safe havens” have lagged. This can demonstrate bullish sentiment toward riskier assets.

Note: The workspace and indicators referenced in this article are available in this zip file. Customers wishing to use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) instead of Select Sector Indexes can find matching ETFs on our disclosure page.

S&P 500, daily chart. The relative strength histogram at the bottom compares the index with consumer staples. Notice how the S&P 500 often falls after consumer staples outperform, and how they have lagged during current rally.

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Lower Inflation Keeps Bulls in the Driver’s Seat as Earnings Begin https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/07/17/spx-recap-lower-inflation-bulls/ Mon, 17 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54400 Stocks keep rising as lower inflation spurs hope the Federal Reserve is almost done hiking interest rates. The S&P 500 rose 2.4 between Friday, July 7, and Friday, July 14. The index touched its highest level since April 2022, with 82 percent of its members advancing. Consumer prices rose 3 percent year-over-year in June. It […]

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Stocks keep rising as lower inflation spurs hope the Federal Reserve is almost done hiking interest rates.

The S&P 500 rose 2.4 between Friday, July 7, and Friday, July 14. The index touched its highest level since April 2022, with 82 percent of its members advancing.

Consumer prices rose 3 percent year-over-year in June. It was 0.2 percentage point less than forecast and the smallest increase since March 2021. The core reading, which focuses on stickier services like shelter, also slowed more than expected.

CME FedWatch tool showing estimated interest rates at the last meeting on December 13.

Markets reacted quickly by reducing the odds of an additional rate hike after the Fed’s July 26 meeting. (See the CME FedWatch screenshot.) The U.S. dollar also fell to its lowest level in over a year, which can support risk assets and corporate earnings.

“I think we’re close” to stopping rate hikes, policymaker Michael Barr said on Monday. Christopher Waller, another voting member at the central bank, was more hawkish and warned that another increase may be needed in September.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index also shot past expectations to its highest level since September 2021. That continued a trend of improvement that started in June after the debt ceiling was raised.

Other headlines were positive. Initial jobless claims fell more than expected. The Fed’s Beige Book survey of economic conditions also upgraded its view of business conditions as future activity turned positive.

Biggest Gainers in the S&P 500 Last Week
Match (MTCH)+14%
D.R. Horton (DHI)+13%
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)+13%
MGM Resorts (MGM)+12%
Etsy (ETSY)+11%
Source: TradeStation Data

Weak Dollar and Housing

Assets that benefit from a weak U.S. dollar, like precious metals, fared best last week. Homebuilders also jumped as investors looked for lower rates to drive activity.

All 11 sectors rose last week, led by growth areas like semiconductors, e-commerce and electric vehicles. Airlines and cruise ships fell as traders took profits after big rallies in June.

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) had its biggest weekly gain in over three years after announcing its food would be available on Uber Technologies’ (UBER) Uber Eats app.

Salesforce.com (CRM) jumped to a 17-month high after raising prices for its marketing software. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and UnitedHealth (UNH) also climbed after earnings and revenue beat forecasts.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select indicators and levels.

Charting the Market

Last week’s rally landed the S&P 500 to a potential resistance level from April 21, 2022, as the Fed started hiking rates. While there are few bearish signals on the chart, some traders may look for a pause.

The relative strength index (RSI) gave one potential signal by hitting an “overbought” condition on Thursday. Another signal, based on comparing the moving averages for index members also exited a bullish condition. (It compares the number of stocks above their 20- and 50-day MAs, respectively.) The S&P 500 is additionally above the top of its Keltner Channel, a potential measure of price range.

Biggest Decliners in the S&P 500 Last Week
Progressive (PGR)-11%
Carnival (CCL)-9.5%
FMC (FMC)-8.7%
State Street (STT)-7.8%
AT&T (T)-7.1%
Source: TradeStation Data

Above the current zone, chart watchers may eye the March 2022 peak as potential resistance. They could view the August 2022 high as potential support to the downside.

The Week Ahead

Earnings season accelerates this week, with more than one-tenth of the S&P 500’s members issuing results.

Nothing important is scheduled for today.

Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are the big names Tuesday morning. The economic data includes retail sales and NAHB’s homebuilder index.

Tesla (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX), Goldman Sachs (GS) and United Airlines (UAL) report on Wednesday. Housing starts and building permits are also due, along with crude-oil inventories.

Thursday features initial jobless claims and results from American Airlines (AAL).

American Express (AXP) and Schlumberger (SLB) report on Friday morning.


Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)+17.50%+63.40%+176.32%
As of June 30, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

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Stocks Rise Into Earnings as ‘Soft Landing’ Hopes Grow: Market Trends https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/07/13/market-trends-july-11/ Thu, 13 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54353 Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here. Register for Market Trends here. Sizing Up the S&P 500 Sector Watch Key News Patterns & Signals Mover of the Week: Global-e Online Upcoming Events Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above ETF 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +17.50% +63.40% +176.32% […]

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Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Register for Market Trends here.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 bounces after holding 50% retracement of June 26-30 weekly candle
  • Index has few apparent bearish signals as it approaches 4513
  • March 2022 high of 4637 may be in play
  • Advance/Decline Line makes a new high
  • Yield curve steepens as 2-year Treasury fails at 5%
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with selected indicators.

Sector Watch

  • Weak-USD trades gain with Fed pause in sight: European stocks, gold, silver
  • Energy accelerates amid positive supply/demand balance. SLB/HAL leading
  • Regional banks rebound: ZION is top-performing S&P 500 member so far this quarter
  • Small caps, mid caps may be playing catchup as breadth widens
  • Lagging safe havens may reflect risk appetite.

Key News

  • CPI headline & core below expectations. Shelter, used car prices, transport reduce services inflation.
  • Non-farm payrolls miss estimates amid downward revisions
  • Microsoft/Activision ruling viewed as potential defeat for FTC’s merger-blocking efforts.
  • Citi downgrades U.S., upgrades Europe
  • Goolsbee of Fed sees “golden path” to lower inflation without a recession
  • Meta (META) gains on Threads optimism
  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN) jumps to No. 2 spot at TradeStation after deliveries ease production worries.
    • Like Tesla (TSLA) in October 2019?
  • UPS, AMZN, autos face potential labor issues
  • Tom Lee: Underinvested money managers may chase S&P 500 to new highs as recession worries fade.
  • FactSet: More companies issuing positive guidance and downward earnings revisions are smaller than average.
  • Rystad Energy flags 20% increase in “well interventions,” valued-added oil-field services.
  • Corn futures plunge as USDA boosts crop outlook.

Patterns & Signals

  • Silver futures (@SI) break falling trendline
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): triangle near 50-day MA
  • First Solar (FSLR) tries to reclaim 50-day MA
  • Shopify (SHOP): triangle near 50-day MA
  • Vishop (VIPS) bounces at 50-day MA as U.S. dollar weakens

Mover of the Week: Global-e Online

  • Global e-commerce service provider beat..
  • Consensus sees revenue +42% this year, +36% next year
  • GLBE +117% YTD

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (7/14): Consumer sentiment
    • Earnings: JPM, C, WFC, UNH
  • Monday (7/17): nothing important
  • Tuesday (7/18): Retail sales, industrial production, NAHB homebuilder sentiment
    • Earnings: BAC, MS, SCHW
  • Wednesday (7/19): Housing starts, building permits
    • Earnings: TSLA, NFLX, GS, UAL

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)+17.50%+63.40%+176.32%
As of June 30, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

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Chart of the Day: Is Caesars Following Travel Stocks Higher? https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/07/11/technical-analysis-caesars-entertainment/ Tue, 11 Jul 2023 15:30:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54501 Travel stocks have climbed recently, and now Caesars Entertainment could be showing signs of strength. The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the highs of February, March and mid-June. The casino operator pushed above it at the end of the last quarter and returned there on Monday. Further upside from here […]

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Travel stocks have climbed recently, and now Caesars Entertainment could be showing signs of strength.

The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the highs of February, March and mid-June. The casino operator pushed above it at the end of the last quarter and returned there on Monday. Further upside from here could make traders think resistance is fading.

Bollinger Band width has also …

For more, please click here to view the related idea and chart analysis on TradingView.

Caesars Entertainmentdaily chart, with selected patterns and indicators, courtesy of TradingView.

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Options Alert: Large Put Spread Targets Key Level in Apple https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/07/11/apple-options-put-spread/ Tue, 11 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54334 Apple has surged this year as Wall Street anticipates a new iPhone cycle and growth opportunities in India. But yesterday options traders looked for a pause. Check out this large transaction that occurred shortly after Monday’s open: There are two possible explanations for the trade. Credit Spread The more bullish possibility is that the 180 […]

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Apple has surged this year as Wall Street anticipates a new iPhone cycle and growth opportunities in India. But yesterday options traders looked for a pause.

Check out this large transaction that occurred shortly after Monday’s open:

  • 20,000 4-August 180 traded for $1.66.
  • 20,000 4-August 170 traded for $0.54.
  • Volume was more than 5 times open interest at both strikes, which suggests a large investor executed a put spread.

There are two possible explanations for the trade.

Credit Spread

The more bullish possibility is that the 180 puts were sold and the 170s were bought. That would be a put credit spread, letting the investor receive $1.12 now. He or she would keep that payment as profit as long as AAPL stays above $180 through expiration.

They’d have to buy 2 million shares for $1.80 below that level.

Apple (AAPL), daily chart, showing the 50-day moving average and key levels.

This strategy could make sense if the investor likes AAPL but thinks it needs to pause. They stand to collect some money up front, while also programming an entry if a lower level is reached. The $180 price point is also near the 50-day moving average and a peak from March 2022, which could make them potentially attractive entry points.

The credit spread additionally includes a hedge to the downside with the 170 puts. Those limit potential losses in the event of a bigger decline. Earnings are scheduled for the afternoon of August 3 (shortly before expiration) which could trigger volatility.

Bearish Put Spread

A second potential explanation is that the investor purchased the 180 puts and sold the 170s. That would be a bearish put spread, leveraging potential a drop to $170. In that case, he or she would have paid $1.12 and stands to make 793 percent from a plunge to the lower price.

The trades work because puts fix the price where a security can the sold, which can make them gain value when stocks decline. Investors can also sell puts to generate credits in spreads.

AAPL ended the session down 1.1 percent at $188.61. It’s up 45 percent this year and hit an all-time record high of $194.48 on June 30.


Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Visit www.TradeStation.com/Pricing for full details on the costs and fees associated with options.

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Tesla Gets a Rival on Wall Street as Traders Wait a Big Inflation Report https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/07/10/tesla-rivian-inflation-earnings-recap/ Mon, 10 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54300 Tesla, one of the most active stocks in the market, suddenly has a rival among traders. Rivian Automotive (RIVN) announced better-than-expected deliveries last week. That gave Wall Street confidence the maker of electric pickups and SUVs is finally overcoming production issues and is ready to ramp up production. Traders drove the stock up by 51 […]

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Tesla, one of the most active stocks in the market, suddenly has a rival among traders.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) announced better-than-expected deliveries last week. That gave Wall Street confidence the maker of electric pickups and SUVs is finally overcoming production issues and is ready to ramp up production. Traders drove the stock up by 51 percent, its biggest weekly gain ever.

RIVN isn’t a member of the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq-100. If it were, last week’s surge would have ranked it at the top of both indexes by a wide margin. The stock also jumped to No. 2 on TradeStation’s list of most active symbols in July from 35th in June. (TSLA continues to hold the top spot this month.)

Rivian Automotive (RIVN), daily chart, with select moving averages.

The breakout occurred in the holiday-shortened week of Independence Day. The broader S&P 500 slipped 1.2 percent but remained in a tight range near its 17-month high. It was only the second drop in the last eight weeks.

‘Golden Path’

“The Fed’s overriding goal right now is to get inflation down,” Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve told CNBC on Friday. “We’re going to succeed at it, and to do that without a recession would be a triumph. That’s the golden path, and I feel like we’re on that golden path.”

Goolsbee, a voting member of the central bank’s monetary committee, spoke after job growth in June missed estimates. (The previous two months were also revised sharply lower.) The news helped ease concerns that the Fed would need to keep hiking rates aggressively. It also raises the stakes for Wednesday’s inflation report, which is expected to hit a two-year low around 3.2 percent. Could the historic price spiral from the coronavirus pandemic be finally ending?

Investors may think so. Last week, for example, the American Association of Individual Investors reported that over 46 percent of respondents in its regular poll thought stocks would advance over the next six months. It was the highest reading since November 2021.

Energy, Banks

Ten of the 11 major sectors last week declined, according to TradeStation data. However oil-servicing companies (a subset of energy) and regional banks (a subset of financials) rallied. Both have underperformed this year, which may suggest investors are rotating to new stocks after several months of favoring technology.

Real estate investment trusts, another laggard, was the only positive sector last week.

Health care, homebuilders, materials and technology had some of the larger declines.

Fidelity National Information (FIS) jumped after agreeing to sell a majority stake in its business-payments division Worldpay.

S&P 500, daily chart, with select indicators.

Charting the Market

The S&P 500 may be showing moderate signs of fatigue after hitting a new 52-week high on June 30.

Two oscillators recently fell despite the broader index climbing: moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) and the rate of change. This may be considered “bearish divergence.”

Biggest Gainers in the S&P 500 Last Week
Schlumberger (SLB)+8.6%
Fidelity National Information (FIS)+8.4%
Zions Bancorp (ZION)+7.9%
Halliburton (HAL)+7.9%
Global Payments (GPN)+7.4%
Source: TradeStation Data

Next, fewer index members are now above their 20-day moving averages than are above their 50-day moving averages. This relationship, derived from TradeStation custom data, has often anticipated turns in the S&P 500.

Chart watchers may believe prices have established a higher range. Potential support could be around 4325, near last August’s high and the June 26 low. They could also view roughly 4510 as resistance because it was a peak in late April 2022.

The Week Ahead

This week brings key inflation data and the start of earnings season.

Today’s main item is a speech by Fed governor Michael Barr. No big events are scheduled for tomorrow.

The consumer price index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday could be the main event of the week. Economists could pay special attention to the shelter component of the report because it pushed inflation higher last year and now could be easing. Crude-oil inventories are also due.

Biggest Decliners in the S&P 500 Last Week
Generac (GNRC)-8.8%
Align Technology (ALGN)-6.8%
KLA (KLAC)-6%
Merck (MRK)-5.5%
Nike (NKE)-5.4%
Source: TradeStation Data

Thursday features initial jobless claims and the producer price index (PPI). PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) announce quarterly results.

Friday brings consumer sentiment and earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C) and UnitedHealth (UNH).

Earnings get more active the following week as companies like Bank of America (BAC) and Netflix (NFLX) report.

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Stocks Near Highs After Bullish Outside Candle: Market Trends This Week https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/07/06/market-trends-july-6/ Thu, 06 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54270 Downloads are available here. (New zip file this week.) Register for Market Trends here. Sizing Up the S&P 500 Key News Chart Notes Mover of the Week: Trade Desk Upcoming Events Using the Platform Hourly active chart uses several indicators and ShowMes Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security […]

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Downloads are available here. (New zip file this week.)

Register for Market Trends here.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 potentially overbought but few apparent reversal signals
  • Bullish outside candle last week
  • 10-day MA rising for 27 days, longest streak since February
  • Potential resistance above 4500
  • Potential support at 4400
  • Index members above 20-day MA still exceed number above 50-day MA
  • S&P 500 in midst of low-volatility drift, which potentially favors stock picking over index trades

Key News

  • CME Fed expectations little changed since 6/14 meeting
  • Tom Lee raises S&P 500 forecast to 4825. Sees inflation fading, AI boosting tech.
  • Katie Stockon targets 4510 on the S&P 500
  • Inflation cooling?
    • S&P Global: PMI Price index drop at fastest pace in 3 years
    • ISM manufacturing misses estimates, prices drop
    • CNBC: GM Q2 sales growth suggests supply-chain normalcy
  • June consumer sentiment revised higher amid “striking upswing”
S&P 500, daily chart, with select signals and patterns.

Chart Notes

Mover of the Week: Trade Desk

  • Ad-management software for new digital ecosystem
  • Earnings, revenue beat last three quarters
  • Sitting at 50% recovery from drop November 2021 to July 2022
  • Potential bullish triangle at August 2022 high
  • TTD + 72% YTD

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (7/7): Non-farm payrolls
  • Wednesday (7/12): CPI
  • Thursday (7/13): PPI
    • Earnings: DAL, PEP
  • Friday (7/14): Consumer sentiment
    • Earnings: JPM, C, UNH, WFC, UNH

Using the Platform

Hourly active chart uses several indicators and ShowMes

  • Directional signals:
    • MACD cross days: Positive readings show MACD rising
      • Note: MACD has special settings to emulate daily signals
    • MovAvg Order: 50-hour MA vs 100-hour MA
    • New 52-week highs (white crosses on chart)
  • Overbought/oversold signals:
    • RSI
    • Keltner pullback
      • Note: Updated from previous zip files

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

The post Stocks Near Highs After Bullish Outside Candle: Market Trends This Week appeared first on Market Insights.

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A New Bull Market? Stocks Hit a New 52-Week High as Recession Fears Ease https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/07/03/bull-market-stocks-52-week-highs/ Mon, 03 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54235 Stocks rebounded sharply to end June as cooling inflation and strong economic data spurred hopes of a new bull market. The S&P 500 rose 2.3 percent between Friday, June 23, and Friday, June 30. It was the sixth positive week in the last seven. The index also had its biggest monthly gain (6.5 percent) since […]

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Stocks rebounded sharply to end June as cooling inflation and strong economic data spurred hopes of a new bull market.

The S&P 500 rose 2.3 percent between Friday, June 23, and Friday, June 30. It was the sixth positive week in the last seven. The index also had its biggest monthly gain (6.5 percent) since October and completed its third straight winning quarter.

The Commerce Department increased its estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product from 1.4 percent to 2 percent. The unusually large revision reduced fears of a recession — especially with jobless claims falling much more than expected. The Personal Consumption Expenditure price index also matched estimates.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics separately reported that real wages (after inflation) increased in May for the first time in two years. Could the worst inflationary crisis in four decades be easing? Has the Fed engineered a “soft landing” like 1994-1995?

Sixty-one percent of investors believe a new bull market has begun, according to a survey by CNBC. That compares to the 70 percent bearish rating at the end of March. Respondents were also much less worried about a recession.

Biggest Gainers in the S&P 500 Last Week
Carnival (CCL)+19%
Generac (GNRC)+16%
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)+13%
Caesars Entertainment (CZR)+13%
Charter Communications (CHTR)+13%
Source: TradeStation data

Energy and Transports Surge

Cyclical groups that could benefit from the U.S. avoiding a recession were the biggest gainers last week. Energy stocks like TechnipFMC (FTI) and Halliburton (HAL) rallied. Both are servicers that could grow from increased drilling. Transports, another key cyclical group, saw broad gains in airlines, truckers, railroad suppliers and delivery companies.

Materials and industrials followed. Those included paint makers like Sherwin Williams (SHW), steelmakers like Nucor (NUE) and packaging stocks like Westrock (WRK). United Rentals (URI) and industrial supplier WW Grainger (GWW) were some of the big industrial gainers.

Interestingly, real-estate investment trusts were the single biggest best performing sector with a gain of 5.1 percent last week. Utilities, health care and consumer staples — typically viewed as safe havens — rose the least.

S&P 500, daily chart, with key indicators and levels.

Charting the S&P 500

The S&P 500 started last week by dropping to within 3 points of its August 2022 high. The index quickly bounced and ended at 4450, its highest closing price in 15 months. That price action, with a lower low and higher high, is known as a bullish outside week. Some chart watchers may consider it evidence that buyers outnumber sellers.

Next, TradeStation data shows 76 members of the S&P 500 hit new 52-week highs. It was the most since November 2021. Does it signal widening participation to the upside?

The Week Ahead

This week includes a few big events, with markets closed for Independence Day tomorrow. No major earnings are scheduled.

Biggest Decliners in the S&P 500 Last Week
Walgreen Boots Alliance (WBA)-9.3%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)-7.8%
Illumina (ILMN)-7%
McCormick (MKC)-7%
General Mills (GIS)-5.7%
Source: TradeStation data

Today’s main item is the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index.

A two-day meeting of OPEC follows on Wednesday and Thursday, which could potentially impact energy prices.

Wednesday also brings minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting.

Thursday has several items: ADP’s private-sector payrolls report, jobless claims, ISM’s service-sector data and crude oil inventories.

The monthly employment report on Friday morning will probably be the most important headline because it could shape views of the economy and inflation before the July 26 Fed meeting.

The post A New Bull Market? Stocks Hit a New 52-Week High as Recession Fears Ease appeared first on Market Insights.

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S&P Holds Breakout as Quarter End Approaches: Market Trends This Week https://www.tradestation.com/insights/2023/06/29/market-trends-june-29/ Thu, 29 Jun 2023 07:00:00 +0000 https://www.tradestation.io/insights/?p=54196 Downloads are available here. MACD cross days available here. Register for Market Trends here. Sizing Up the S&P 500 Key News Mover of the Week: Zillow Group (Z & ZG) Upcoming Events A Floor Under Crude? Leveraged Cyclicals in Focus Using the Platform Find leveraged cyclicals: Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy […]

The post S&P Holds Breakout as Quarter End Approaches: Market Trends This Week appeared first on Market Insights.

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Downloads are available here. MACD cross days available here.

Register for Market Trends here.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 stayed 3 points above August 2022 high so far this week
  • Momentum slowing but members above 20-day MAs still exceed members above 50-day MAs
  • Rotation under the surface as more companies under $100bln of market cap make new 52-week highs
  • S&P 500’s move is relatively extended with index up in 6 of last 7 weeks but no reversal patterns are evident
  • Transports gaining, potential “Dow Theory” signal
  • April 21, 2022, high of 4513 may remain in play
S&P 500, daily chart, with select indicators and patterns.

Key News

  • Carnival (CCL) earnings, revenue beat estimates
  • Consumer confidence jumps to 17-month high as views of current situation improves
  • Generac (GNRC) gains amid Texas grid worries
  • Nvidia (NVDA) drops as The Wall Street Journal reports on potential export restrictions
  • Micron Technology (MU) earnings, revenue beat
  • Crude-oil inventories -9.6mln barrels vs -1.757mln estimate
    • SPR lowest since July 1983

Mover of the Week: Zillow Group (Z & ZG)

  • Real-estate marketing stock jumps as housing comes to life
  • Earnings, revenue and guidance surprised to the upside on May 3
  • Z +63% YTD
  • Still down about 75% from 2021 high
    • Z= non-voting shares
    • ZG=voting shares
  • Discovered using last week’s “non-index runners” scan.
  • Similar companies: EXPI, RDFN

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (6/30): PCE inflation
  • Monday (7/3): ISM Manufacturing
  • Tuesday (7/4): Market losed
  • Wednesday (7/5): OPEC meeting
  • Thursday (7/6): ADP payrolls, initial jobless claims

A Floor Under Crude?

Crude oil futures (@CL), daily chart, with select patterns.

Leveraged Cyclicals in Focus

  • Interest costs are fixed, allowing potential leverage if operations improve.
  • Non-recessionary “soft landing” can support demand. That can help pricing and margins.
  • Eventual peaking of interest rates can reduce interest expense in coming years.
  • Investors see potential double-benefit of margins and credit
  • Recent examples:
    • Cruise ships: CCL, RCL, NCLH
    • Airlines: AAL, UAL, DAL
    • Rental cars: CAR, HTZ
  • Is the opposite process working on consumer staples like GIS?

Using the Platform

Find leveraged cyclicals:

  • EV/MktCap custom indicator: Higher values = more leverage. Results must be sorted by sector because banks have leveraged business model.
  • EV/MktCap can be used in RadarScreen (see “MT Main” workspace: “fundamentals” tab) and Scanner
  • Potential Scan Criteria:
    • Indicator → EV/MktCap > 2 (finds leveraged stocks)
    • Indicator → Sector <> “” (displays sector)
    • Price → Last > Indicator → MovAvg 1 Line (Length = 50) (finds stocks above 50-day MA)
    • Price → %Chg → %Chg (5 day) < 10 (hides stocks up 10%+ in last week)

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

The post S&P Holds Breakout as Quarter End Approaches: Market Trends This Week appeared first on Market Insights.

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